by Tim Edson
regular columnist
In just over nine months, Virginians will head to the polls to choose a new chief executive who will lead the Commonwealth of Virginia for the next four years. What several months ago looked like a clear cut race between former republican Attorney General Jerry Kilgore and Lt. Gov. Tim Kaine has taken a sudden twist; liberal republican Senator H. Russell Potts of Winchester announced Friday he plans to enter the race as an independent. Conventional wisdom would dictate that Potts's candidacy could tilt the electoral results in Kaine's favor in November. I've been doing a little thinking, and I'm here to tell you, especially you loyal republicans, Potts's announcement could turn out to be Christmas in February for Virginia's Republican Party.
Up until last week, this years gubernatorial election appeared to be a classic Virginia political battle between the conservative republican candidate Kilgore and the liberal democratic candidate Kaine (not a Massachusetts liberal, however). The campaign I anticipated playing out was one in which Kaine wrapped himself in the relative popularity of Mark Warner's administration while trying to cloak his true record as a tax-raising, anti-gun liberal. Meanwhile, Kilgore could have been expected to campaign on a platform of tax cuts, which would possibly give Virginians back the budget surplus that existed before Warner and liberal republicans hammered their tax increase through the General Assembly last year based on dubious accounting. He also could have campaigned for tougher penalties for criminals and a general adherence to traditionally conservative values.
So, throw Potts into the race, and at first glance you have a liberal republican running an independent populist campaign. It would appear Kilgore could be in for some serious trouble, especially if Potts can garner some funding and exposure in the press. With both Kilgore and Kaine sitting atop substantial war chests, it would seem highly unlikely Potts would have any realistic chance of winning. He could certainly be a spoiler though.
Though Potts stands little chance of winning the election, he seems intent on sending a message to Virginia republicans that there must be space in the party for moderates (i.e. liberals). The Associated Press reports that Potts believes “the GOP has drifted too far right for a ‘middle-of-the-road’ state like Virginia,” but he is not abandoning the party.
Returning to the conventional wisdom, it would appear that Potts has positioned himself to take liberal republican votes from Kilgore, thereby handing the governor's mansion to Tim Kaine. It isn't that simple however when you take into account some of the statements Potts is making. His rhetoric smacks of over-the-top liberalism, and if they serve to do anything, it will only be to back Kaine into a corner.
To be honest, I even thought Potts posed a serious hurdle for Kilgore until I discussed it with a friend of mine the other night who should quit his job as an attorney and become a political strategist. After our discussion, I realized it is not Kilgore that Potts presents a challenge for, it is Kaine.
Kaine is a liberal democrat who supports tax increases, though he would never admit to it because of the political ramifications; you can bet Kaine would bring back the car tax given the slightest opportunity. Kilgore is 100 percent against reinstating the car tax. But, enter Potts who pledged Friday to reinstate the car tax, saying, "I'd put it exactly where it was before Jim Gilmore was governor."
Potts has inadvertently maneuvered Kaine into a corner, especially if the Kilgore camp seizes the initiative, as I expect they will. Kilgore can frame the race as a contest between a true conservative and two liberals of varying degrees. Kilgore must demand Kaine publicly state his position on the car tax. If Kaine were to come out in favor, he could kiss moderates and conservative democrats goodbye (recall Gilmore winning many moderates and democrats with his pledge to abolish the car tax). If he comes out against the car tax, it could be Potts collecting the votes of pro-tax democrats. Clearly, Kaine is in a tough position.
If Potts diverts votes from anyone, which I doubt, it will likely be from Kaine. This is because liberals who are disappointed that the lieutenant governor won't advocate bringing back the car tax will jump ship to support Potts, who apparently has never seen a tax increase he doesn't like. Don't expect to see too many republicans buying Potts's agenda.
It should be an interesting election. A lot could still happen, and the party tickets won't even be set until June. Nonetheless, Virginia's GOP should be thankful for Potts and his lust for tax increases.
