For each of the past two presidential elections there have been these "swing states" which have, for all intents and purposes, decided the outcome of the national election.
In 2000 it was Florida and in 2004 it was essentially Ohio. In 2008 it could be Virginia's turn, which, among other states such as Missouri and Colorado, has enough electoral votes to count, has been trending away from reliably partisan voting, and is currently polling nearly dead-even between the two major candidates. This brings up the question: Could Virginia vote Democratic for president for the first time since 1964? If so, how did this happen and what does it mean?
Virginia is among the most reliably Republican states in the Union and for that reason the fact that it's possibly "up for grabs" this November may be cause for concern among Republican Party leaders. In fact, with an increasing percentage of the state population living in Northern Virginia and with recent Midwest or Northern transplants moving to areas such as Tidewater and Richmond, in many ways the Republican vote along with a tobacco farming heritage and sweet tea are among the few remaining ties Virginia has with the South.
Sure you'll find die-hard Southerners in parts of the state with accents so thick you can't understand a word they're saying and many might bristle at the accusation that Virginia is becoming less and less of a "southern" state, but the fact remains that it is much less so than it was in 1864 or even in 1964.
If the state is trending blue, it can in large part be attributed to demographic trends, especially in Northern Virginia. This area of the state, which can be loosely defined as the counties either directly touching the District of Columbia or tied economically and socially to D.C., votes Democratic in most regards and, as the most recent congressional elections showed, is becoming more liberal as time progresses. The importance is that, in terms of population, this area has a major say in state electoral trends. According to recent data by the Weldon Cooper Center at the University of Virginia, one in every three Virginians now lives in Northern Virginia.
Indeed, in the elections of Mark Warner in 2001, Tim Kaine in 2005 and Jim Webb in 2006, the Northern Virginia vote proved to be the difference in sending these Democrats to key leadership positions.
Similar to other states, we may see urban areas dominate the electoral process, with a relatively small geographic portion of the state voting liberal but carrying the day because of the large population in that area. Maryland, a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than two to one among registered voters, is mostly red when looked at on a map but the jurisdictions with the greatest vote, Baltimore City, Prince George's County and Montgomery County (altogether representing almost half of the state) push the state solidly blue.
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Students - please register to vote and then follow up by voting. In 2004 there was an expectation that a large student turnout would swing the election to Kerry. The 18 - 22 year vote did not increase. The next President and his policies will affect your generation. The war in Iraq and Afghanistan, the current financial collapse and social security issues and their resolution will affect your employment opportunites and hnce your quality of life. Please vote.
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Brian-your assumption is that all 18-22 yr olds vote democratic?
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Brian sounds like he is seconds away from having a crying melt down
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Anyone draft-eligible that doesn't vote or votes Republican, get what they deserve. And this time, there wont be any deferments for anyone. Can't be...not with 3 wars going on at once, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Russia.
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Gotcha, because Democrats would never, ever use force if we were provoked. Obama's been both ways on that issue - he's an isolationist by nature, but Americans have been wary of isolationism ever since the run-up to World War II. A direct conventional war with Russia is unlikely, unless Russia provokes it - in which case, there are countries with which we have diplomatic ties obligating us to defend them. It's unlikely that Russia would do that, though, since their economy is propped up almost entirely by its commercial interests with Europe - it simply can't afford to anger too many nations. But really, supposing I vote Republican, what is it exactly that I 'deserve?' Unless the US is directly attacked, there won't be a draft - drafts cause too much political consternation (though they didn't used to. . . .)
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To make every vote in every state politically relevant and equal in presidential elections, support the National Popular Vote bill. The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The National Popular Vote bill has been approved by 21 legislative chambers (one house in CO, AR, ME, NC, and WA, and two houses in MD, IL, HI, CA, MA, NJ, RI, and VT). It has been enacted into law in Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These states have 50 (19%) of the 270 electoral votes needed to bring this legislation into effect. see http://www.NationalPopularVote.com
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There is a reason why thats not the way Presidents are elected Susan. When those jack-as$es - eh donkeys - stop getting people to vote twice then maybe this will be a good idea.
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While walking down the street in downtown Richmond, VA, I was approached by two young women who were registering people to vote... Young women - Would you like to register to vote? Me - I'm already registered, thanks. Young women - Well, who are you going to vote for? Me - McCain. Young women - Well, we are only registering Obama supporters anyway! Obama '08!
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Provoked and attacked are two different things. We are not being attacked by Russia, yet the Republicans want to attack. Really, there wont be a draft? You mean that young people are so fired up about their government commencing two wars, one based on lies, that they're just lining up to enlist! The draft is a-comin', do ya feel it? Or is it that hot air that just keeps blowing hotter from the "heroes" of Country First!
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Please identify which Republicans 'want to attack.' Please next identify how these Republicans (if any) speak with the official voice of the party, such that they would lead you to believe that all Republicans 'want to attack.' And no, there won't be a draft, beacuse of the public outcry that would happen were one to be instituted - unless, of course, the US mainland is attacked. It's political suicide in this day and age to call for a re-instatement of the draft . . .
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The "face" and now present voice of the party, McCain and Palin are rattlin' their sabres...and you know what that means...we're gonna smoke 'em out! Diplomacy?!?...we don't need no stinkin' diplomacy! But, of course, our armed forces haven't met their recruiting goals in years, so we'll get a new batch. Yep, there's gonna be a draft and you'll be votin' for it if you vote Republican. And 18-22 get the shaft first! Great thing is tho, if you make it out alive, you can legally drink a beer.
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Then it seems like Obama is 'rattlin' his sabre' as well, based on what he's said the past few weeks. I really don't see where you're going with this, and since you keep refusing to back your assertions up with any sort of real evidence, this isn't really much of a discussion. I mean, come on - cite some sources, offer some quotes - anything to demonstrate a little more intellect. Please.
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Don't need no intellect to write a comment, let alone run the country. All's I need is to barely graduate on the coattails of my granpa and daddy, survive 5 plane crashes and capture (havin' that famous granpa and daddy helps survivin' capture), dump the wife, marry rich, go to 6 colleges, get elected where nobody cares, birth 5 babies, skin a moose, shoot a wolf from a copter and/or be a hackey maam. And don't give me none of that fancy talk. That's for losers and diplomats. Runnin' my small town is a heck of alot more complicated than that east-middle...er..middle-east...er...whatever you call it. Vote for me, the draft's a-comin', you will see!
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"Virginia is among the most reliably Republican states in the Union..." ...is Virginia part of "the Union"?
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You are starting to border on the ridiculous. I mean, clearly you don't support McCain, and that's fine - honestly, nobody should really care for whom anyone else is voting. It ought to be a private matter. But what you aren't really demonstrating is why you favor Obama (or, really, anyone aside from McCain) over McCain - and beyond that, why you assume that all Republicans line up rank and file behind McCain's line of reasoning. Maybe you think your posts are humorous - if that's the case, more power to you; it's pretty easy for anyone to be impressed with himself. But you ought to be able to recognize that your comments aren't really lending any weight to the discussion, so it might be wise to back off the irrelevance and substitute a little more substance in your posts.
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Ow, it's asinif you poked me in the eye! Yer right!, I don't care who anyone else if votin' for, cuz my talk aint as fancy as yourn, but it's as right as rain. Votin's a private matter, but with a public pain. Just, cuz y'all got that high falutin education an your kids wait way too long to get hitched, we be overrunnin' you soon enough. The good lord put us all here to first spread the word, and whether by hook, crook, or govinment intervention, we're gonna do it! And no matter what happens, private profits and public losses...it's the Republican way! Bail the rich out and suit up the young and ship us off. I regret that I have only one life to give for W and John McCain, got bless 'em.
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So your whole argument is based upon a set of stereotypes you believe universally apply to McCain supporters? I mean, just set me straight on that - are you just being irresponsibly presumptive, or do you actually believe what you are saying? I'd venture that most Conservative aren't particularly enamored with McCain (the rich shouldn't be bailed out. . . but neither should the poor, in my opinion). I still don't see where your certainty over an imminent draft is coming from. . . .and what I really don't understand is why you seem to have a zero-tolerance policy for people whose ideas don't commingle with your own.
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There's a reason for stereotypes. We'll let go of the ones that aren't applicable anymore...like Republicans wanting smaller government, more individual freedoms, and fewer taxes. The red just keep getting redder, in debt and embarrassment.
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I don't disagree with you that the Republican party isn't of the same ideological mold which earned it the 'Conservative' mantle in previous years, and for that reason I remain highly skeptical of most of its nominees for office, including McCain. On the other hand, I can't in good conscience vote for someone who advocates larger government, more debt, and wealth redistribution - and those aren't stereotypes, those are planks in Mr. Obama's platform. But the ultimate point here isn't party or candidate support - what I was getting at with my comment about stereotypes is that supporters of McCain are more ideologically diverse than the previous poster seems to think - which, I have found, seems fairly typical from the far left (people with whom I have spoken tend to approach Conservatives with a sort of "What sort of mental disease do you have that you would actually consider voting Republican" attitude, which really irritates me). Intelligent people vote Democrat, and other Intelligent people vote Republican. Two (somewhat) different ways of governing - nothing more and nothing less. There's nothing wrong, per se, with voting one way or another. But if you stereotype McCain supporters as 'flag-waving and gun-toting,' you have to be prepared to accept stereotypes of Obama supporters as government-dependent, wealth-hating socialists. I'd just as soon leave the stereotypes out of the discussion, though. . .
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McCain-Palin. Let's see....two ongoing wars..but you can't put a price on freedom ($60 billion off budget). Of course, we'll take on that nuke lovin Iran...we want to free the Iranian people too. After 7 years, everybody knows "unilateralism" works..including paying for it. Heck, we don't even need oil rich Iraq to pay its own bill...its on US! Now, we do have to deal with that pesky $500 billion annual deficit and uh $700 billion plus bank bail out. Our first policy will be to NOT VETO any spendin bills brought to us by them "tax and spend" Democrats. We'll call it "the Bush strategy". Then, more TAX CUTS should fix them deficit thingies. Energy problems?. Well, we got an EXPERT that lived in Alaska..drilling off the coastlines will solve that!
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OK, look, I'm more than willing to discuss these things with you guys. But we all have to first come to the understanding that I am no avid Bush supporter, nor am I an avid McCain supporter. I firmly believe that the best way to deal with the current market crisis is to keep the government as far away as possible. I firmly believe also that the best way to get this country back on track is to stop spending money on niche social programs and get back to what the Constitution says the federal government is supposed to do. Bush is a populist, and McCain is less of a populist (but still adheres to some pretty basic populist tendencies). However, it's simply not factual to suggest that we have acted unilaterally in Iraq and Afghanistan (to wit, the Brits are there with us in both places - as are many others). The tax cuts Bush enacted, by the way, actually increased revenues to the Federal Government. So before we get caught up in unsubstantiated talking points, why don't we focus on real issues?
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There are, of course, many legitimate critiques to be made of Bush's administration, and of McCain's campaign. But there are equally many critiques to be made of Obama's campaign. Maybe the thinking here is that it can't get any worse than Bush, so we might as well try Obama - but by that logic, McCain would be an equally appropriate choice. I can always hold out hope that the Republican party will return to its Conservative, tax-cutting, spendthrift ways of better years - but the Democratic party advances on the wings of a New Socialism spurred by renewed feelings of class warfare and unbridled envy. Neither candidate is particularly appealing; but then, the call to public office is usually only heeded by the absolute dregs of society. Obama and McCain both qualify.
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Kyle is correct about the draft being political suicide, and also astute to point out the fact that, not so long ago, a draft was a foregone conclusion. We are very fortunate to view a draft as a last resort, when only several decades ago it was the status quo. This country has become less a nation of equal opportunity, and more a nation of equal entitlement. Unfortunately, conservatives have strayed from their ideals and routinely let down many who believe that the increasingly bloated federal government must be held accountable for unnecessary spending, particularly when it is on tasks that are beyond the scope of the constitution. As a side note, Kyle, you may want to check the definition of "spendthrift." I've made the same mistake before, otherwise I would never have known that it means exactly the opposite of what you'd expect.
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Oh yeah, if McCain is elected, there will be a draft. McCain said that he would call for a draft in a "world war III scenario" and that's what we'll be in if we commence one more war in one more country...like Russia. Membership in NATO, or the "Bush Doctrine", affirmatively endorsed by both McCain and his running mate (after she was told what it was), will be the excuse. I hope y'all enjoy your "vacation" in foreign lands. Send me a postcard to Mexico if McCain is elected. Oh, and good luck with no body armor. The money for that will be spent by Republicans to bail out Wall Street speculators.
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Couple of points, Mexico. First, let's get some common ground here - why, exactly, is a draft a bad thing? Is it the concept of a draft in general, or is it the CIRCUMSTANCES necessitating the draft, which concern you? Most people argue that drafting young men to serve in Vietnam was a waste of manpower, resources, and lives better spent back home - at the same time, most people don't seem to have had a problem with the draft being used (heavily) in World War II. So supposing that World War III happened on account of, for instance, a Russian infringement on the sovereignty of Ukraine (similar to Germany's Blitzkrieg through Poland) - would you support, or oppose, a draft? The point I'm trying to get at is that 'the draft' has a particular stigma attached to it on account of Vietnam which it had not had prior to World War II - and we as a nation need to try and understand why that is the case.
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Secondly, the "Bush Doctrine" is a newsmedia term, not an official political term - and it is terminology which has morphed since it was coined. Palin's response was more nonspecific, perhaps, than it should have been - but what she offered was a fairly apt paraphrase of one of the varied explanations of what the Bush Doctrine 'is.' We're not talking about an absolutely specific policy, like the Monroe Doctrine or the Roosevelt Corollary - we're talking about terminology which has been in and out of favor as the news has progressed. And by the way, the Republicans in congress are notably standing up against the President's desires in regards to the bailout package being offered. Personally, I think the government would do best to leave the whole apparatus alone (although we know that won't happen). The biggest single error this government can make (and Bush isn't alone in his desire to do this - he is joined by many on both sides of the aisle) would be to buy up the 'bad debt' of the companies which have tanked - and worse yet, buy up the debt of homeowners facing foreclosure. It's tantamount to investing in nothing.
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