For those of you who haven’t been checking your calendars, we have officially entered the month of March, and we sit less than two weeks from college basketball’s “Selection Sunday.”
This is a big day for a lot of programs, but it is also the most nerve-wracking day of the year if you happen to be one of the programs sitting on the bubble, unsure of whether or not you’ll be one of the 65 schools selected for the NCAA Tournament.
After three straight losses, not only is the Virginia Tech men’s basketball team on the bubble, it is just a couple of losses away from trade marking another monumental collapse.
It’s funny how much things can change in just two weeks.
After a victory against Wake Forest on Feb. 16, the Hokies were 8-3 in the Atlantic Coast Conference and had a perceived lock for a tournament bid.
Since then, Tech has entered a freefall, including road losses to Duke and Boston College, and a disheartening double-overtime loss at home on Saturday to Maryland.
The loss to Duke wasn’t a huge blow to the Hokies resume — this is true. You could even argue that the loss to Maryland wasn’t all that bad, even though it was a home game.
However, if you combine those losses and sandwich a 20-point loss to Boston College between them, there exists a resume killer.
Throughout the Hokies’ losing streak, everyone knew that the team was trying to compensate for an incredibly weak resume.
With a Ratings Percentage Index mark of 52 and a 156th-ranked strength of schedule (343rd-ranked out of conference), Tech knew that there was little margin for error. That margin dwindled even further when people started to realize how weak the ACC truly is.
Many felt that the Hokies would need at least 10 wins in the conference to get a tournament bid. Weeks ago at 8-3, with five games remaining to earn just two wins, that didn’t seem like too difficult of a task.
Now, at 8-6, Tech needs to win its last two games against North Carolina State and a very good Georgia Tech team to get to 10 wins.
As it stands right now, ESPN’s college basketball expert Joe Lunardi has the Hokies in the field of 65 and listed as one of the “last four in.”
While that is a good sign, especially considering Lunardi is the best in the country at predicting who will be dancing in March (he actually teaches an online class called “Fundamentals of Bracketology” at Saint Joseph’s University), there is still a lot more basketball left to be played.
But with the way the Hokies have played over the past two weeks, that may not be such a good thing.
Over the years, the way a team finishes the season has become more and more of a critical factor in making it into the tournament, and the Hokies aren’t exactly dominating in this category.
Unfortunately for the Hokie Nation, recent history also tells us that Tech’s season may be defined as one where the team won all of the easy games early on, but collapsed when the competition got harder.
Last season, the Hokies finished the year by dropping six of their last seven regular season games, including their last three against ranked opponents. When there was a faint glimmer of hope left last season, Tech fell to No. 1 North Carolina by three points in the second round of the ACC Tournament and kissed an NCAA tournament bid goodbye.
Although this year’s team is better and its resume looks stronger, its finish will be just as important in deciding Tech’s postseason fate.
There are still two regular season games and an ACC Tournament remaining before the Hokies sit down in front of the television set to see if they’re a tournament team.
One could spend hours discussing issues such as the “eye test,” record against the RPI top-50, and critical wins and losses, but the Hokies’ season will undoubtedly be decided in the last few games.
Even though we say that we are only two weeks away from “Selection Sunday” because we have been waiting 11 months for it, it is still a lot of time.
Over that span, Lunardi’s field of 65 will probably change a dozen times over.
For now, the Hokies remain on the bubble. How they perform in the final two weeks of competition will decide their fate.
A win tonight against NC State will be a good start, but Tech will certainly have to win at least one more game, if not two, to secure a tournament bid.
If Tech defeats NC State, then falls to Georgia Tech, a first-round win in the conference tournament will be a must. If the Hokies fall to the Yellow Jackets on Saturday, depending on how they lose, Tech may need two wins in the ACC tournament to solidify a bid.
As I left Cassell Coliseum after the Hokies’ win over Wake Forest on Feb. 16, I thought to myself how awesome it was that Tech wouldn’t have to worry come “Selection Sunday.”
When I left Cassell Coliseum after Tech’s double-overtime loss to Maryland on Saturday, I thought to myself, ‘‘Here we go again.’’
Is it time to panic? Maybe.
But there is still a lot of basketball left to be played and a lot of bracketology left to be studied.
How that plays out is not up to Lunardi or my constant deliberation after games, but it is up to the Hokies and how they handle the next 12 days.
