“Wake Forest was really struggling going into the NCAA tournament last year and they got beat by Cleveland State,” Roth said. “But I think a lot of us that had seen Wake play in the ACC tournament last year at the Georgia Dome ... picked Cleveland State to win that game. So I think if you’re at a lot of the games and you have a sense of who’s not playing well and who is playing well, sometimes that will carry over.”
On the flip side, finding the contenders remains equally critical.
“Hopefully there’s a feel for who is playing really well right now and who might be seeded a little bit low,” Roth said. “Example: This year Marquette is a team that played really well down the stretch and should have a great run, a team that can do some real damage.”
Conference tournaments present a weird tension for the brackteering, because of the variation in necessity for victory of the teams participating, and the fact that conference tournaments serve as the most recent results.
Last season North Carolina rested Ty Lawson, who was recovering from injury at the time, and lost in the ACC semifinals. After receiving a one-seed anyways, the Tar Heels would leave only scorched earth in the NCAA tournament, doling out one of the most dominating performances since Sherman’s March to the Sea.
Maryland, projected to be a No. 4 seed prior to this year’s tournament, sleepwalked through the first half of the ACC quarterfinals against Georgia Tech, who had to win to go dancing. Georgia Tech would win and make the NCAAs, while Maryland lost and received a four-seed.
If you still take stock in Maryland in the NCAAs, and diagnose Georgia Tech a pretender, shouldn’t you dismiss what happens in this type of conference tourney situation?
Lazenby disagrees.
“I think there are teams that don’t play well in their conference tournament and then they get hot later and I think there are teams that — it always matters. And they tend to win conference tournaments, or at least they advance.
“I think there are also a lot of teams in college basketball that really don’t know how to play a tournament yet. It takes a while to learn that and so I tend to look at teams that probably know how to play a tournament. ... Those kinds of teams can get on a run even if it’s the NCAA tournament. A team like Ohio State, they’ve got some veteran folks.”
In the end, discovering the champ dwarves all. Any sensible scoring system weights a correct championship pick colossally more than any games in other rounds. If you’re short on time for studying, it may be good to just find that juggernaut.
“Sometimes there’s not a clear-cut best team, Lazenby noted, “But I think this year Kansas is clearly the best team.
But if you’re a die-hard bracket-damus, the sheet isn’t complete without the upsets.
“Then you look for potential spoilers. ... If you have a team of veteran guards who have a lot of skill and experience, that’s really good,” Lazenby said. “If you have a team that has been there before that’s not brand new to all of this, and I always think you have to acknowledge coaching.”
Before kicking yourself all month for not picking the obvious champ, missing out on the genius dark horse selection, or neglecting a contender, heed this advice. And keep your mortgage out of this.
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