I’m too depressed to fill one out this year.
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Such was my sentiment as the shower water streamed down my tearful face, after the clock radio said it again wasn’t so for the Hokies. How do I get out of bed knowing Virginia Tech went from near-lock, to falling against the last-place team in its conference, to getting booted out by the NCAA tournament selection committee in just three days?
During the past three Selection Sundays I’ve wondered if these Big Dance bouncers held a grudge over Tech’s coach saying critics were certifiably insane not to pick the Hokies back in March 2008.
It’s certainly another culprit; if strength of schedule told the committee to jump off a bridge, they’d probably do it. Either way, I’ve since built up a stubborn dedication to expecting the worst, and am actually now at homeostasis.
My mental state can, however, quickly shift to euphoria with one incredible run through a March Madness pool, with my bracket by my side. A bracket brimming with wonder and promise, destined for greatness. A bracket crafted by the most skilled of artisans.
Unfortunately, these goals have gradually eroded since I turned about 13, with my more recent efforts falling short of “genius,” “greatness,” “beating my roommates,” “not losing to my mom,” “not crying in the shower” and so forth.
That’s why, before setting that pencil to printout — and without discussion of any gambling intentions — I made sure to gain advice from a few acclaimed basketball experts.
“I’m afraid I know squat about (basketball) outside of my uncanny ability to quote Bill Murray’s lines from Space Jam,” offered John Boyer, geography professor.
Being a Sporn Award winner and expert on the movie Space Jam, starring Michael Jordan and Bugs Bunny, Boyer does check off both the “acclaimed” and “basketball expert” boxes.
However, my study soon veered in another direction, as it turns out Boyer knows little about basketball when it doesn’t involve man-cartoon interaction. But that’s OK, I will need multiple perspectives to humiliate my friends this year.
My bracketeering then found people who’ve authored basketball books or served as announcers for Division-I college ball.
Bill Roth, the voice of Hokies basketball for ISP Sports Network, has seen a lot of games this year.
“I’ll be honest, I’ve probably seen just about everybody play, probably, of the 65 teams,” the iconic play-by-play man said. “... So, I use that, obviously having watched it, but there are a lot of really good Web sites out there. You can study teams by the official Web sites of the individual schools. I think the various major media services do a very good job breaking things down.”
Roland Lazenby, who’s basketball biography, “Jerry West: The Life and Legend of a Basketball Icon,” recently hit the L.A. Times’ bestseller list, also prepares for the tournament with a little literature.
“For years, I’ve always bought a copy of USA Today,” Lazenby said. “(And I) have my folded copy of USA Today that I take with me through the tournament.”
Of course, this staple of Big Dance preparation now faces competition that has exploded in recent years.
“They used to do it a different way. We didn’t used to have anything but the preseason magazines and some newspaper stuff,” Lazenby said. “Of course today, we have instant information on the Internet. ESPN is sort of the catch-all there for me, but it has changed dramatically because you do have so much information.”
In this kaleidoscope of insight it can be a bit daunting to decide — based on the tournament at hand — which great theory of yours still applies.
“Every year there is something that is going to disprove it,” Lazenby said.
Roth relies heavily on his wealth of experience announcing Atlantic Coast Conference basketball.
“Wake Forest was really struggling going into the NCAA tournament last year and they got beat by Cleveland State,” Roth said. “But I think a lot of us that had seen Wake play in the ACC tournament last year at the Georgia Dome ... picked Cleveland State to win that game. So I think if you’re at a lot of the games and you have a sense of who’s not playing well and who is playing well, sometimes that will carry over.”
On the flip side, finding the contenders remains equally critical.
“Hopefully there’s a feel for who is playing really well right now and who might be seeded a little bit low,” Roth said. “Example: This year Marquette is a team that played really well down the stretch and should have a great run, a team that can do some real damage.”
Conference tournaments present a weird tension for the brackteering, because of the variation in necessity for victory of the teams participating, and the fact that conference tournaments serve as the most recent results.
Last season North Carolina rested Ty Lawson, who was recovering from injury at the time, and lost in the ACC semifinals. After receiving a one-seed anyways, the Tar Heels would leave only scorched earth in the NCAA tournament, doling out one of the most dominating performances since Sherman’s March to the Sea.
Maryland, projected to be a No. 4 seed prior to this year’s tournament, sleepwalked through the first half of the ACC quarterfinals against Georgia Tech, who had to win to go dancing. Georgia Tech would win and make the NCAAs, while Maryland lost and received a four-seed.
If you still take stock in Maryland in the NCAAs, and diagnose Georgia Tech a pretender, shouldn’t you dismiss what happens in this type of conference tourney situation?
Lazenby disagrees.
“I think there are teams that don’t play well in their conference tournament and then they get hot later and I think there are teams that — it always matters. And they tend to win conference tournaments, or at least they advance.
“I think there are also a lot of teams in college basketball that really don’t know how to play a tournament yet. It takes a while to learn that and so I tend to look at teams that probably know how to play a tournament. ... Those kinds of teams can get on a run even if it’s the NCAA tournament. A team like Ohio State, they’ve got some veteran folks.”
In the end, discovering the champ dwarves all. Any sensible scoring system weights a correct championship pick colossally more than any games in other rounds. If you’re short on time for studying, it may be good to just find that juggernaut.
“Sometimes there’s not a clear-cut best team, Lazenby noted, “But I think this year Kansas is clearly the best team.
But if you’re a die-hard bracket-damus, the sheet isn’t complete without the upsets.
“Then you look for potential spoilers. ... If you have a team of veteran guards who have a lot of skill and experience, that’s really good,” Lazenby said. “If you have a team that has been there before that’s not brand new to all of this, and I always think you have to acknowledge coaching.”
Before kicking yourself all month for not picking the obvious champ, missing out on the genius dark horse selection, or neglecting a contender, heed this advice. And keep your mortgage out of this.