It’s that time of year again.
After a long summer watching poor excuses for professional sport, like the ever-changing, never entertaining X-Games — or the Baltimore Orioles, for example — football is back.
And as the NFL season’s kick-off stands just a couple weeks away, fantasy football is back, too.
You may be in one league, playing just for fun. You may be in two leagues, because you’re popular like that. Or — if you’re like me — you may be in six to seven leagues with half of your last paycheck of the summer and your pride up for grabs.
Whatever the case may be, I can guarantee you didn’t decide to play because you wanted to lose.
The only people who do that are delusional elementary school gym teachers and mothers of five. This isn’t a charity, Mom — this is fantasy football.
It’s time to study the league, keep up-to-date on injuries, and take your best guess at who may bust and who may be that diamond-in-the-rough who will take your team to the promise land.
Here are just a few of my many guesses:
SLEEPERS:
Matt Cassell, quarterback, Kansas City Chiefs
If Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Matt Schaub are off the board, and you’re looking for a starting quarterback, take a look at Matt Cassell.
While it’s been hard to consider drafting anyone playing for the Chiefs in recent years, this may be the year for an offense that hasn’t cracked the top 20 since 2006.
Since joining the Chiefs last season, Scott Pioli, former New England Patriots vice president of player personnel, now serving as the Chiefs’ general manager, has gotten down to business.
Through this year’s draft, Pioli added the talented Dexter McCluster to the team’s backfield — a running and receiving threat who may soon take over full-time duty behind Cassell.
Pioli also hired offensive guru Charlie Weis to serve as the team’s offensive coordinator after Weis was fired from his head coaching job at Notre Dame.
Add a non-suspended star wide receiver in Dwayne Bowe to the mix, along with a talented receiver like Chris Chambers, who now has a year under his belt working with Cassell, and you’ve got an offense with weapons.
When was the last time you could say that about the Chiefs?
Projected Stats: 3,300 yards passing, 26 TDs, 13 INTs
Ahmad Bradshaw, running back, New York Giants
Everyone knows about Brandon Jacobs, the Giants’ larger-than-life, bruising running back who made a name for himself three years ago when the team won the Super Bowl.
Jacobs has been the first and last person thought of when discussing the Giants’ running attack ever since.
However, behind the scenes at practice this year, beat writers and fans have begun to notice a change in New York’s plans.
Now, Ahmad Bradshaw, a midget in comparison to Jacobs, standing at 5 feet 9 inches and weighing in at 198 pounds, is the man taking the first snap with Eli Manning’s offense.
To a stat freak, this isn’t shocking. In three years, Bradshaw averaged 5.2 yards per carry and, despite an injury-plagued 2009, ran for 778 yards and averaged 4.8 yards per touch. Meanwhile, Jacobs averaged just 3.7 yards per carry and had his most unimpressive year to date.
As the Giants offensive line has aged, holes along the line have become smaller, and a smaller running back fits the team better every day.
While head coach Tom Coughlin won’t discuss who is No. 1 and who is No; 2, it’s clear Bradshaw’s time has come.
With two surgically repaired feet, the smaller guy in the Giants’ backfield has impressed in two preseason games thus far and looks to be “the guy” in 2010.
Projected stats: 240 carries, 1,100 yards, 9 TDs
BUSTS:
Brandon Marshall, wide receiver, Miami Dolphins
Every year, the hopes for Brandon Marshall get bigger. Since his breakout season in 2007, the often-disgruntled wide receiver has been one of those “he’s too good to not take” picks, despite his issues on and the off the field.
And he’s done well.
As the go-to-guy in Denver, Marshall made his living as the key contributor to a pass-happy offense. In 2008, for example, the Broncos ran the ball less often than 27 teams in the league — a wide receiver’s dream.
This year, though, Marshall enters his fifth season with a different club in the Miami Dolphins.
After three consecutive 100-plus reception, 1,100-plus yard seasons, Marshall will have a hard time matching his recent numbers with his new team.
Why? Because there are only two teams that ran the ball more than the Dolphins did in 2009.
Specializing in the wildcat formation, the Dolphins’ offense must change its whole dynamic if it plans to accommodate Marshall’s lofty goals. It’s hard to see that happening with a quarterback like Chad Henne and a healthy Ronnie Brown returning to even further bolster Miami’s running attack.
Projected stats: 75 receptions, 760 yards, 7 TDs
Matt Forte, running back, Chicago Bears
If you want a guy with heart, draft Matt Forte. If you want to win your league, don’t.
Forte enters 2010 with several problems. First, a guy named Chester Taylor is breathing down his neck on the Bears’ depth chart. So, right away you can guarantee Forte won’t amass the carries he usually does in an NFL season.
Second, Forte is banged up. Since being drafted in 2008, he’s simply been overworked. In his first year, the Tulane grad ran 316 times. To put that in perspective, the Arizona Cardinals’ entire team ran the ball just 24 more times all of last season.
If that doesn’t steer you away from Forte, check out how many yards per carry he’s gained over the course of his career. Sub-4.0 numbers don’t cut it in the NFL for long and Forte hasn’t improved, dropping from 3.9 yards to 3.6 yards per touch last season.
Projected stats: 710 yards rushing, 5 TDs