The nation’s capital is mourning this week after hearing devastating news concerning its savior, Stephen Strasburg.
The Nationals pitching sensation will be out for 12 to 18 months because of a ligament tear in his right elbow that will require Tommy John surgery. Strasburg was sensational in his rookie season, going 5-3 with a 2.91 ERA including 92 strikeouts prior to his injury.
It’s hard to sugar coat the news because of Strasburg’s importance to the Nationals, but before you do anything drastic, know that Strasburg will return in 2012, back in dominant form. In addition, Strasburg will be only 23 entering the 2012 season, allowing him ample time to ascend to the top of the game.
While it’s no small issue, the torn ligament that Strasburg suffered isn’t the career death sentence it was 40 years ago. The procedure was first performed by noted sports surgeon Frank Jobe on Tommy John in 1974, and now has an estimated 85 to 92 percent chance of complete recovery.
That still means there is a 15 percent chance that the future ace of the Nats will never be the same, but it’s better than this being a career-ending injury.
If the scientific facts don’t console the weeping D.C. natives, then they should look up some of the current pitchers that have had the surgery, including Josh Johnson, Chris Carpenter, Billy Wagner, Tim Hudson and Francisco Liriano.
Every single one of those pitchers has had to go through what lies ahead for Strasburg and the end result for each of those players is that they are some of the best pitchers in the game. For instance, the Cardinals’ Carpenter is currently 14-4 with a 2.93 ERA all at the tender age of 35.
You could also make the argument that guys like Tim Hudson were actually better after they were fully healed from the surgery. Hudson is sporting a 15-5 record with a 2.24 ERA this season, the lowest ERA of his career, and like Carpenter, is doing it at 35 years old.
A strong comeback for Strasburg is also likely because of his repertoire of pitches. People are dazzled by his 100+ mph fastball, but that isn’t what has led him to dominating baseball’s best hitters.
Closer Armando Benitez had a 100 mph fastball too. Ask any Mets or Orioles fan about him and you’ll realize that throwing hard doesn’t always translate into success.
No, it is Strasburg’s changeup and curveball that make him an exceptional pitcher.
Both of Strasburg’s off-speed pitches are clocked in the low-80s, meaning that there is an unbelievable 15 to 20 mph difference between his fastball and changeup. That is what made the dazzling heat so powerful — the fact that a batter had to be ready to face both speeds.
Now, let’s say that Strasburg doesn’t get back to triple digits when he throws his fastball, will it really matter? He will always throw hard, although his mechanics might need to be tweaked to make his wind up less volatile. Now assume he still pitches in the mid-to-high-90s.
That makes his fastball still amongst the best in baseball, his changeup will still be devastating as it is still at least 10 mph slower than his fastball and his curveball is probably one of the best in the league.
The bottom line is that velocity can make you a good pitcher, but it doesn’t make you great. To be great, you need a handful of pitches that can keep batters guessing. Strasburg, at the age of 22, already has that and his fastball is just one of those pitches.
When he comes back, whether his fastball tops out at 95 or 105 mph, he will be among the best pitchers in baseball and racking up the K’s just like he did this season.