Print Comment Email Column: Job market outlook is not promising
Hugh McCarthy, regular columnist
Wednesday, May 28; 7:50 PM
The U.S. economy is busted.

After months of debate and turning a blind eye, analysts are in agreement that our nation is taking a financial nosedive, and we have arrived at the inevitable destination: recession.

Warren Buffet, the only investor in history who has consistently beat the stock market, predicts the funk "will be deeper and longer than what many think." The prophetic Allen Greenspan agrees, saying there is a greater than 50 percent chance of a recession.

Notably, my garbage man assures me that our financial system is in the dumps.Predicting macroeconomic trends is like forecasting the weather. By observing historical tendencies and examining current data, experts are able to pinpoint the occurrence and duration of recessions.

The National Bureau of Economic Research correctly announced the recessions of 1980 and 2001. These people are good. Historically, the average recession lasts eight months. However, the president of NBER, Martin Feldstein, says the 2008 recession could last longer.

The outlook for 2008 college graduates is bleak.

U.S. companies erased 63,000 jobs in February alone. If firms are laying off experienced workers, they are certainly not hiring as many diploma-wielding graduates.

Of course, some industries are more stringent than others. That B.S. in psychology with your 3.1 GPA won't get you a can of beans in this market.But let the suckers who graduated worry about that. They are alumni now, which goes hand-in-hand with being old.

We, however, are still in college and life is good. By the time 2009 graduation season rolls around, the U.S. economy will be in expansion mode, recovering from any damage done by the 2008 decline. Forestry majors will be beating corporate recruiters off with sticks. Not to mention 2010 graduates and beyond.

Historically, these recessions only come about once every several years. Since 1980, the occurrence, severity, and duration of recessions have been declining. I am no oracle, but the president of NBER is, and he says we can expect a healthy economy for a long time following the recovery. As for the present, the effects of this slump on a college student's lifestyle are marginal, if not invisible.

Students are not canceling their beach week plans. We are not scratching our Europe extravaganzas. We are certainly not shying away from blowing money downtown. If this is all you got, U.S. economy, then heck, give me a full-blown depression. Maybe then I'll show some respect.

I understand the recession is a big deal to people making large purchases. Loans are expensive and harder to come by than a successful completion of bar golf. But I am not buying a house or financing the purchase of a new car this year. And you can be sure I am not getting a real job this year. The same goes for most undergrads.

When a forest grows too wild, an unavoidable fire eliminates the weak, clearing the way for revitalization. Similarly, we are in prime position to launch fresh careers once doomsday has flamed out.

Come May 2009, employers will be "making it rain" with job opportunities.So sit back, undergrads, and enjoy the protective cocoon of college until the time is right to emerge.

And to you recent graduates, may God help you, because your degree will not.

Add your opinion
Posted by: Gabe at Jun 3 If this paper's so bad, why waste time trolling the talk-back section? I've said it before, the only thing more pathetic than an Internet sniper is an anonymous Internet sniper. Flag Abuse
Posted by: Taylor at Jun 2 Wow, I am really going to take someone seriously who doesn't even know the spelling of ALAN (not Allen) GREENSPAN. And, while the outlook wasn't great for 2008 grads, everyone I know has a job except one person. And let's keep in mind that the person has applied for ONE job. Also, GDP grew by 0.9% last quarter and if there is ANY growth we're not in a recession. It's not much growth, but it's not a decline! Gloom and doom, like this article is what helps propel the market into a decline. Keep on sucking in the negative energy and thoughts... it will get you far. Flag Abuse
Posted by: at May 31 if anyone is really interested in a reading a well written article on this subject check out today's new york times... and to the author- this article suggests what is true- the jobe market is going to be worse in 2009 Flag Abuse
Posted by: Jason T at May 30 Please note also that I usually hesitate to listen to market analysts or follow any popular investing trends, but it happens that in this instance, the measure of available inventory has historically correlated strongly with the status of the housing market, so I think it's worth considering. Flag Abuse
Posted by: Jason T at May 30 Jonathan, fair enough, but I still hesitate to ever listen to anything a real estate agent says. In my opinion they are no different than used car salesmen. It doesn't take much to become a realtor, and I really don't think they're out there doing analyses of the market to determine its true status. While you may be right about the market in NoFla (although I didn't observe the market beginning to pick back up in Tallahassee), the point I'm making is that many market analysts believe that there is about another 10-15% left for prices to shed before they hit bottom. Don't get me wrong; I'm much more inclined to buy a house when I need one rather than trying to time the market, but I acknowledge that now is in general not the ideal time to get the absolute rock bottom price. As for interest rates, it is simplistic to say that they will climb as soon as the market picks back up. Remember: interest rates were just as low as they are now when the bubble was about to bust. The correlation between sales and interest rates is not that direct. Flag Abuse
Posted by: T at May 30 Why do I still continue to read the CT? Where do they find these writers? Flag Abuse
Posted by: Jonathan Daugherty at May 30 Jason, that was at the closing table, there was no need to motivate me to buy. Investors are beginning to buy again in this area (north Florida). It's also interesting that you say "prices don't begin to recover" as though high home prices are a desirable thing for the buyer. Unless you are planning on flipping a house, or you simply see houses as investments, low prices (and low tax assessments) are a good thing. Those of us that see houses as a place to live and raise a family are quite happy paying a little less for the necessity of shelter. Also, lower income individuals are able to buy houses that only two years ago would have been completely out of reach. And as this article correctly points out, there is an ebb and flow to the economy, and in a few years when I am ready to sell the prices will most likely be back up (though not necessarily as high as during the bubble). Markets are volatile, and markets in different areas fluctuate differently. Down here, the market is picking back up. Flag Abuse
Posted by: at May 30 wow.. and i thought the collegiate times couldn't get any worse... I know something good about being an '08 graduate- I won't be associated with this awful newspaper anymore p.s. i have a job Flag Abuse
Posted by: Jason T at May 29 Jonathan, I believe you are naive to listen to a real estate agent's assessment of the housing market. Why on earth would they tell you that the housing slump will continue? How would that get you pumped up to buy? National home inventories are at historic highs, and generally prices don't begin to recover until the inventory of available homes becomes manageable once again. Now, don't get me wrong; if you are ready to buy a house, I don't think it's a bad idea, but for you to say that it is already recovering may be a bit premature. Have a look at http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/19186/Why-It's-a-Bad-Time-to-Buy-a-House-High-'Real'-Mortgage-Rates-Record-Inventories?tickers=XLB,WM,COF,CFC,FNM,FRE Flag Abuse
Posted by: Jonathan Daugherty at May 29 Actually, loans aren't expensive right now. I just bought a house and got 5.875% interest, which is the lowest it's been in years. And the agents I talked to all agreed that the housing market is picking back up, so in the next year we'll see interest rates start to climb again. Now couldn't be a better time to buy. When people are scared to make purchases, the sellers/lenders are willing to give insane incentives just to keep themselves in business. Being a 2007 grad has been a good thing for me. Flag Abuse
Posted by: Gabe at May 29 I stopped by God's...he's not hiring either, got suckered into a sub-prime mortgage trying to flip a second heaven. Flag Abuse
Posted by: Kyle Minor at May 28 I'm not quite sure from where Mr. McCarthy draws his conclusion that graduates in the class of 2009 will have a 'leg up' on their class of 2008 competition - the shrinking and expanding of the job market actually tends to bode well for the youngest generation of graduates, because they have no tenure in their fields - they are cheaper to hire and retain, and tend to be more flexible with their skills than many in older generations. The opinion that we are in a recession (and it is only an opinion at this point, for various economic reasons, the most prominent being that the economy hasn't actually been 'losing' much of anything for the last several months) and its effect on the job market doesn't take into account the fact that within the next 10 to 20 years, if not sooner, the entire Baby Boom generation will retire - and with every few retirements comes a new job for a recent graduate. I guess what I'm trying to say is that I understand the joke the author makes at the end - it simply isn't very amusing and is largely inaccurate. Flag Abuse
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