Column: Job market outlook is not promising
After months of debate and turning a blind eye, analysts are in agreement that our nation is taking a financial nosedive, and we have arrived at the inevitable destination: recession.
Warren Buffet, the only investor in history who has consistently beat the stock market, predicts the funk "will be deeper and longer than what many think." The prophetic Allen Greenspan agrees, saying there is a greater than 50 percent chance of a recession.
Notably, my garbage man assures me that our financial system is in the dumps.Predicting macroeconomic trends is like forecasting the weather. By observing historical tendencies and examining current data, experts are able to pinpoint the occurrence and duration of recessions.
The National Bureau of Economic Research correctly announced the recessions of 1980 and 2001. These people are good. Historically, the average recession lasts eight months. However, the president of NBER, Martin Feldstein, says the 2008 recession could last longer.
The outlook for 2008 college graduates is bleak.
U.S. companies erased 63,000 jobs in February alone. If firms are laying off experienced workers, they are certainly not hiring as many diploma-wielding graduates.
Of course, some industries are more stringent than others. That B.S. in psychology with your 3.1 GPA won't get you a can of beans in this market.But let the suckers who graduated worry about that. They are alumni now, which goes hand-in-hand with being old.
We, however, are still in college and life is good. By the time 2009 graduation season rolls around, the U.S. economy will be in expansion mode, recovering from any damage done by the 2008 decline. Forestry majors will be beating corporate recruiters off with sticks. Not to mention 2010 graduates and beyond.
Historically, these recessions only come about once every several years. Since 1980, the occurrence, severity, and duration of recessions have been declining. I am no oracle, but the president of NBER is, and he says we can expect a healthy economy for a long time following the recovery. As for the present, the effects of this slump on a college student's lifestyle are marginal, if not invisible.
Students are not canceling their beach week plans. We are not scratching our Europe extravaganzas. We are certainly not shying away from blowing money downtown. If this is all you got, U.S. economy, then heck, give me a full-blown depression. Maybe then I'll show some respect.
I understand the recession is a big deal to people making large purchases. Loans are expensive and harder to come by than a successful completion of bar golf. But I am not buying a house or financing the purchase of a new car this year. And you can be sure I am not getting a real job this year. The same goes for most undergrads.
When a forest grows too wild, an unavoidable fire eliminates the weak, clearing the way for revitalization. Similarly, we are in prime position to launch fresh careers once doomsday has flamed out.
Come May 2009, employers will be "making it rain" with job opportunities.So sit back, undergrads, and enjoy the protective cocoon of college until the time is right to emerge.
And to you recent graduates, may God help you, because your degree will not.
