Collegiate Times

While flipping through channels during daily TV time, ESPN?s SportsCenter popped on the TV. Hoping to catch some World Cup, some Wimbledon, heck even some baseball highlights, I set the remote down. This could waste an hour or so.

But instead of Figo, Federer or Francoeur, it was another "F". Football. The National Football League.

ESPN?s three wise men, Sean Salisbury, Mike Golic and Mark Schlereth, fresh off their stay in ESPN?s cryogenic freezing department for offseason announcers, were chatting away, clearly in need of some more defrosting. It took a good five minutes for the three to agree that Alex Smith was only the second-worst quarterback in the NFL. Jeez, with 30 more to go, they might not decide on a number one by the start of the 2007 season.

I decided to watch over the next few weeks as these NFL Nietzsches theorized on football philosophy in a segment they called "The Ultimate Depth Chart." The three created a virtual playoff bracket by, as far as I can tell, sitting on a fake football field and wearing suits. My mild amusement over this oral entertainment quickly turned to horror as my Washington Redskins kept coming up in their lists.

I should have been ecstatic as my Redskins culled up top six finishes in the running backs, pass catchers and pass defense categories. But no, being picked by Sean Salisbury is like getting a thumbs-up from President Bush. You just know something?s seriously wrong.

Predicting the NFL each year is about as simple as hypnotizing kids afflicted with ADHD. With parity at an all-time high and salary caps and free agency minimizing differences between teams, there?s as much a chance of correctly calling an NFL season as there is of spending a year in Blacksburg without seeing rain.

There is one foolproof way, though, to tell if your team is due for a season of sorrow. Be picked by these NFL experts to finish well. You?ll know you?ll be watching someone else play in January. The figures are so astounding, they make palm reading look like an exact science.

Before the 2005 season, two top sports websites, ESPN.COM and SI.com sent their band of the brilliant to prognosticate the NFL season. If you?re familiar with ESPN Network and Sports Illustrated magazine, these are prominent names in the football universe: Peter King, John Clayton, Paul Zimmerman and Chris Mortensen among others. But the finest writers in the world have numbers that are lower than my standards on a Saturday night.

Out of 13 people predicting, none was able to pick more than six playoff teams correctly out of 12 playoffs spots, and that only happened. The average was about 4.5 correct picks. They also averaged about two correct division winners out of eight. Only one person picked a correct division winner in the NFC and only one picked the Steelers to win it all. The facts are out there; when pundits pick, it?s usually wrong.

Chalk favorites at the beginning of last season ? teams like the Philadelphia Eagles and Minnesota Vikings ? all imploded in early weeks; the pressure of being Peter King?s pick was just too much. Typically, preseason picks are the established favorites from the year before. However, these are the ones unlikely to repeat. Six playoff teams from 2005, half the field, were ranked 20th or lower in Sports Illustrated?s 2005 preseason preview. In fact, the Chicago Bears, who went 11-5 and won the NFC North, were ranked dead last in the NFL by Sports Illustrated.

By contrast, I tried picking the NFL playoff field with a 2002 Indiana state quarter. Going division by division, teams were eliminated if a tails came up, until division winners and wild card teams were set. Granted this assessment is after the fact, but I don?t think my quarter was that biased.

My AFC toss-up was just that, eliminating several playoff teams on the first throw, including the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers. That?s okay though, because if the best minds in football couldn?t see the Steelers coming, how could my quarter (sans mind) know Ben Roethlisberger?s a born winner. Still, I kept on pace with the experts, getting two teams correct in the AFC.

My loose change got torrid when picking the NFC though. It couldn?t tell Carlos Rogers from a cash register, but still knew my Redskins were a playoff team. My government-issued football fortune teller picked the New York Giants and Washington Redskins to come out of the East, The Bears in the North, Carolina in the South and The St. Louis Rams (its only incorrect pick) and Seattle Seahawks in the West.

The total: seven correct teams and three division winners, dominating the experts.

So what does my quarter bode for the 2006 season?

Well. some of the teams readily dismissed by the ESPN experts should expect big things, with the San Francisco 49ers, New York Jets, Cleveland Browns and the New Orleans Saints, ranked 32, 26, 25 and 22 in the "Ultimate Depth Chart," being the hot picks of my 25-cent piece.

We love the NFL for a reason; it is wild and unpredictable. Yet, year after year there?s column space to waste and TV time to be filled, with experts doing their best to incorrectly assess every team. Last year, I gleefully watched as experts dismissed the ?Skins, picking them as one of the least improved teams in the NFL. Instead, they went to the second round of the playoffs. Now with Sean Salisbury telling me how good Washington is, I know we must be one of the least-improved teams.

Is this the experts? goal, to incorrectly predict the finish of all 32 NFL teams? Of course not. They just haven?t mastered the technique of flipping quarters yet.