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The fifth seeded Hokies enter today's game only a 2.5 point favorite over the twelfth seeded Illini, and for good reason. Illinois poses matchup problems for Virginia Tech.
The Illini's top two scorers come from their frontcourt, unlike the Hokies who get the majority of their scoring from backcourt and wing players.
Illinois' biggest threat looks to be 6'9" 220-pound Warren Carter. The senior forward averages 13.7 points and 6.2 rebounds per game and shoots 41.1 percent from behind the three-point line. Look for Tech's junior forward Deron Washington to draw Carter on the defensive end because of his ability to play the post and because of his quickness that is necessary for perimeter defense.
The Hokies have already seen the problems versatile big men can pose a few times this season. North Carolina State's Brandon Costner has had more than his fair share of success against the boys from Blacksburg, and has helped lead his team to a 3-0 mark against Tech this season.
Carter's frontcourt mate, 6'10" 245-pound Shaun Pruitt also looks to be a defensive challenge for Seth Greenberg's ball club. The junior averages 11.6 points and 7.2 rebounds a game, with the lion's share of his offensive production coming from in the paint, similar to NC State's Ben McCauley.
However, unlike the Wolfpack, the Illini don't have three other stellar players at positions 1-3. Illinois does not boast any wing players on par with the 'Pack's Gavin Grant to compliment their significant post presence; their wing player only averages 7.1 points per game and 4.5 rebounds as compared to Grant's 14.8 points per game and 5.1 rebounds.
The good news for the Hokies is that Carter is Illinois' best three-point shooter, and the only Illini player shooting better than 40 percent from behind the arc. Trent Meacham and Brian Randle are the only other players that shoot better than 35 percent for Illinois.Translation: it is a lot less likely the Illini will be able to make the Hokies pay for doubling-down on post players.
The Hokies will need good minutes from Coleman Collins, Cheick Diakite, Lewis Witcher and Chris Tucker.
You had better believe Brad Greenberg's scouting report will stress Virginia Tech exploiting its advantages as far as the perimeter matchups are concerned. Seniors Zabian Dowdell and Jamon Gordon are far better than any two guards the Illini can boast. Additionally, A.D. Vassallo and Deron Washington can significantly contribute at the wing position.
Illinois' 1-3 players combine to average 24 points per game, while Tech's average 40.7.
Dowdell, Gordon and Vassallo will do enough, via dribble-driving and hitting perimeter shots and find the holes in the Illinois defense to open up Tech's offensive attack.
Here's the bottom line as I see it: The Illini have enough talent and pose enough matchup problems to keep the final score relatively close.However, I believe Illinois is a little too offensively challenged to beat the Hokies; the Illini hasn't scored 70 points in a game since their January 10th home victory over the University of Iowa 17 games ago.Final score: Virginia Tech 71, Illinois 64.
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